- Covid news – live: ‘New wave is now starting’ Sage expert warns as UK infections rise The Independent
- COVID-19: Infections increase in UK for the first time in two months Sky News
- UK Covid cases are rising for the first time in two months – here's why The Telegraph
- Covid hospital admissions on rise again in England The Independent
- Covid cases soar 20 per cent after Platinum Jubilee celebrations and will stay high all summer iNews
- Covid news – live: ‘New wave is now starting’ Sage expert warns as UK infections rise The Independent
- COVID-19: Infections increase in UK for the first time in two months Sky News
- UK Covid cases are rising for the first time in two months – here's why The Telegraph
- Covid hospital admissions on rise again in England The Independent
- Covid cases soar 20 per cent after Platinum Jubilee celebrations and will stay high all summer iNews
Covid news – live: ‘New wave is now starting’ Sage expert warns as UK infections rise
The UK’s leading scientists have warned the country will see a new wave of infections this month.
Speaking during a briefing by the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), Professor Christina Pagel said: “The new wave is now starting.”
She added: “We will have a new wave of infections this month. Now hopefully it won’t be as high as the previous two waves and might be lower. But we can’t count on that and either way we are going to see more people becoming infected.”
It comes as Covid-19 infections in the UK have risen for the first time in two months, new data has revealed.
The jump is likely caused by increases in cases compatible with the original Omicron variant BA.1 and the newer variants BA.4 and BA.5, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
A total of 989,800 people in private households are estimated to have had the virus last week, up from 953,900 the previous week.
COVID-19: Infections increase in UK for the first time in two months
COVID cases have risen for the first time in two months, according to the latest figures.
The spike is likely to be caused by increases in cases compatible with the original Omicron variant BA.1 and the newer variants BA.4 and BA.5, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
A total of 989,800 people in private households are estimated to have had the virus last week - up from 953,900 the previous week.
It is the first time total infections have risen week-on-week since the end of March, when the number hit a record 4.9 million at the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave.
Infections rise in all four nations
All four nations have seen a rise in infections, though the ONS describes the trend in Scotland and Wales as "uncertain".
The ONS tweeted on Friday that an estimated one in 70 people (not including hospitals, care homes or communal establishments) in England had COVID up to 2 June this year - equating to 797,500.
The data, obtained from the COVID Infection Survey, found one in 40 (124,100) in Scotland were likely to have the virus last week - up from 105,900 or one in 50.
In Wales, one in 75 people are estimated to have tested positive, the equivalent of 40,500 - a slight increase from 39,600.
Infections in Northern Ireland have risen for the second week in a row to 27,700 people or one in 65 - up from 24,300 which works out to one in 75.
"Across all four UK countries, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 compatible with Omicron variants BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 increased in the week ending June 2 2022," the ONS said.
Positive cases have increased in people aged 35 to 49 - with early signs of an increase in Year 12 school pupils ranging up to 24-year-olds.
The percentage of people testing positive dropped in people aged 50 to 69 and over 70s in the fortnight leading up to 2 June.
Omicron BA.1 is the original variant of Omicron that saw infections surge across the UK around in December and early January this year.
Newer variants could become dominant
Newer variants, BA.4 and BA.5, were recently classified as "variants of concern" by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Scientific analysis found the strains are likely to have a "growth advantage" over BA.2, which remains the dominant strain.
Initial research indicates BA.4 and BA.5 variants have a degree of "immune escape" - meaning the immune system can no longer recognise or fight the virus.
This is likely to contribute to their dominance over BA.2, the UKHSA said.
Rising hospital admissions
In England 4,082 patients had COVID on Thursday, 9 June - up 6% on the previous week.
And in Scotland, 637 cases were recorded on 5 June, the latest date available, showing a week-on-week rise of 8%.
Patient numbers had steadily decreased since early April after the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave.
The figures for people in hospital with the virus in Wales and Northern Ireland have levelled off in recent days.
Hospital admissions are highest among people aged 85 and over, the UKHSA tweeted on Friday.
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, UKHSA consultant epidemiologist for immunisations and countermeasures, said: "Recent data has shown a small rise in positivity rates and hospitalisations with COVID.
"These small increases should be interpreted with caution as data may be subject to delays due to the Jubilee bank holiday."
UK Covid cases are rising for the first time in two months – here’s why
An uptick in Covid hospital admissions in England may herald a new wave of cases caused by omicron sub-variants, according to experts.
According to data published on Friday, hospitalisations have slowly started to climb again, with a 17 per cent jump nationally compared to last week.
Although figures remain relatively low – with 577 people admitted on Thursday, compared to over 2,000 a day in early January – experts say we should not be “complacent regarding the direction of travel”, and warn any increase is likely to put more pressure on an NHS already under strain.
Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday that Covid infections across the UK have risen for the first time in two months, with almost 990,000 people estimated to have had the virus in the last seven days – up from 953,900 last week.
John Roberts, an actuary tracking Covid, told the Telegraph that the uptick in hospitalisations is linked to two omicron sub-variants known as BA.4 and BA.5, which are now “in the ascendancy” having taken over from BA.2 – which caused a wave of infections in April and March.
Both variants emerged in South Africa and have proved able to evade immunity from vaccination or earlier infections. Last month the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control predicted a wave driven by the variants could cause a “significant overall increase” in cases across the continent “in the coming weeks and months”.
Mr Roberts added: “Those watching it more closely than me think that the crossover point where [BA.4 and BA.5 represent] over half the cases was over the Jubilee weekend. It’s too early to say how big the wave will be or how deadly, but any increase will inevitably put even more stress on the NHS, which by all accounts is really struggling at the moment.”
Hospital admissions had grown by 11 per cent compared to last week overall, with south-east England having the highest rates. Analysis on Thursday found that more than a third of new cases are hospitalised primarily for Covid, while 19 per cent likely caught the virus while in hospital.
“Consistent with the overall picture, we’re starting to see an upswing after two months of decline,” said Mr Roberts. He added that we “can’t dismiss” those who were not hospitalised due to the coronavirus, as “having Covid may have caused the primary diagnosis (e.g. a stroke), and it certainly won't be helping their recovery”.
Harder to track
Although the figures remain well below previous waves, some argue that winding up of free testing and the scaling back of epidemiological models has made the progress of the pandemic tougher to track.
Prof Oliver Johnson, a mathematician at the University of Bristol, told the Telegraph he was “honestly not too worried”, but said any new wave was worth keeping an eye on. He added that the variants had already swept through South Africa without causing major problems.
“But still my guess is admissions will go up a bit for a while, so probably just puts a bit more pressure on waiting lists etc,” he said.
The most clinically vulnerable should take care, he said, and people should be aware of the new wave, but he predicted there was little appetite for further action.
“I'm not sure there’s any mood whatsoever from Government or public to do much about this right now,” he said. “And I find it hard to argue they are very wrong.”
Prof Devi Sridhar, a public health expert at Edinburgh University, added that the virus appears to be arriving at around three monthly intervals.
It was still better to avoid getting Covid, she wrote on Twitter, because there was a risk of severe disease, but she said it is right that people have shifted their risk calculations.
“The vectors are often other humans we love, enjoy seeing and being close to, or must see for work reasons. Cost-benefit calculation has shifted for many over time. Avoiding Covid in 2020 by restricting interactions to certain people and settings was understandable given [it was a] new disease [and there was] no vaccine.
“In 2022, most want to interact and live as they see best, given disease severity [has been] blunted with vaccines,” Prof Srihar said.
South Africa is just coming out of a wave of infection driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, which surged through the population even though the great majority of people already had antibodies.
Scientists studying the outbreak said it showed the Covid’s capacity to keep evolving and dodging immunity.
“All of these antibodies that we found did not provide a lot of protection against being infected by the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron,” Alex Welte, a professor of epidemiology at Stellenbosch University told the New York Times last week.
The two new variants are thought to spread more quickly than BA.2, which itself was more contagious than the original omicron. Yet despite the surge in cases during the recent wave, deaths in South Africa were only around a tenth of the peak during previous waves.
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Covid hospital admissions on rise again in England
The number of patients being admitted to hospital with Covid has increased in the first week of June, figures show, after being in decline since the beginning of April.
The number admitted was up by 6 per cent, from 1,175 to 1,380, on 7 June compared to 31 May, according to data published by NHS England.
The biggest increases were in the east of England, up by 41 per cent, and in the southeast and southwest, which were up by 23 per cent.
However, the daily average across seven days appears to be down, compared to the average over the previous seven days.
The news comes after overall hospital admissions of people for Covid and those testing positive after admission rose this week.
According to an analysis by Adele Groyer, from the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, the proportion of people who were likely to have caught Covid in hospital grew to 29 per cent, up from 19 per cent over the past week.
This is based on the number of people testing positive seven days after admission.
The increase comes after infection control measures for hospitals in England were loosened. Patients who are not symptomatic are no longer tested upon admission.
Hospital visitors are no longer required to routinely wear a mask, while staff no longer have to wear masks in non-clinical areas.
The requirement for patients to wear masks within GP practices has also been dropped.
On 12 May the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control predicted that there could be a new wave driven by the increase in the BA Covid variants.
In its paper, the European public health authority said there was no indication the variants were more severe, but that they could cause a “significant increase” in Covid-19 cases in Europe “in the coming weeks and months”.
Covid cases soar 20 per cent after Platinum Jubilee celebrations and will stay high all summer
Covid infections have jumped by a fifth since the Jubilee celebrations began as increased socialising, waning immunity and a drop off in preventative measures helped spread the virus, according to data.
Daily symptomatic infections have risen from 114,030 last Wednesday, the day before the four-day weekend kicked off, to 136,492 today, according to the Zoe Covid-19 symptom tracker app.
Tim Spector, the King’s College London professor who runs the app, says cases typically keep rising for two weeks after a major event and predicts daily infections will peak at about 150,000 cases in around a week – although he says it is hard to be precise.
That would represent a 32 per cent increase on pre-Jubilee levels, at which point he expects cases to “drop a bit and stabilise” – but not falling below 100,000 at any point over the summer. And he expects them to rise again in autumn.
“Over the last four weeks, rates have been really very steady but at a very high rate of around 120,000 cases, which is where we were back in early December,” Professor Spector said.
“We were very worried back then and now we have the same number of cases and we’re not worried. This means that people are still getting infected, most of them still haven’t had it before, although most have been vaccinated and some people are getting it again, maybe whose last infection was more than six months ago.”
Immunity to Covid, from both vaccines and previous infections typically begins to wane sharply after around six months, meaning that large numbers of people are becoming more vulnerable after a period of good protection.
Separately, the Office for National Statistics said Covid cases have risen for the first time in two months.
A total of 989,800 people in private households are estimated to have had the virus last week, up until Thursday June 2nd – up from 953,900 the previous week.
It is the first time total infections have risen week-on-week since the end of March, when the number hit a record 4.9 million at the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave.
“A lot of people who got infected in November and December are now getting it again. So there are plenty of susceptible people out there to this really efficient virus and people are getting together in big groups again as they did last week,” Professor Spector said.
“And we’re seeing people travelling, I was at Stansted airport the other day and people were absolutely packed together for hours, no one wearing a mask, with little ventilation, so the rise in cases is not surprising at all.
“I suspect it will go up. If people are told the news and they start seeing their friends going down with it again, they will start behaving a bit more sensibly and this will bring it down again.
“But it’s not going to go down below 100,000 for the foreseeable future because we don’t have any restrictions and there are still plenty of susceptible people who are getting infected and reinfected.”
Professor Spector is not surprised that people have become much more casual about the high level of infections – even if these more relaxed attitudes is behind them being higher.
“You can only worry for so long. After two years people do get a bit blasé about it. The media are not talking about it and they were in December and so it’s not on the news, and we’re not getting daily counts,” he said.
The other key factor is that Omicron is much milder and hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than they were in November and December he pointed out.
“What people are forgetting is that 4 per cent of people at the moment are getting symptoms that last more than a month and that’s a lot of people that will be off work and handicapped in some way. That long Covid tail is something we should be more worried about than we are,” he said.
“It’s not likely to kill you or send you to hospital but it could mess up a lot of people’s lives still.”
The growing prevalence of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of Omicron are also thought to be a factor in the rise in infections because they are more contagious than the current dominant subvariant, BA.2 and because previous infections by the BA.2 subvariant confer less protection against them.
Experiments on human cells in the lab found “that the immunity induced by BA.1 and BA.2 infections is less effective against BA.4/5 [and] showed that BA.2.12.1 [another new subvariant] and BA.4/5 replicate more efficiently in human cells than BA.2,” a new study found.
“Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters indicated that BA.4/5 is more pathogenic [contagious] than BA.2. Altogether, our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.4 and BA.5, to global health is potentially greater than that of original BA.2,” according to the study, by the Japanese universities of Tokyo, Miyazaki and Hokkaido, published on the bioRxiv server as a pre-print ahead of peer-review because of its timely nature.
The Office for National Statistics also pointed to the growth of BA.4 and BA.5 in its latest survey today – relating to the week ending June 2.
“There were early signs of a possible increase in the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England and Northern Ireland likely caused by increases in infections compatible with Omicron variants BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5; the trends were uncertain in Wales and Scotland,” it found.
The ONS said Covid cases had risen for the first time in two months.
A total of 989,800 people in private households are estimated to have had the virus last week, up until Thursday June 2nd – up from 953,900 the previous week.
It is the first time total infections have risen week-on-week since the end of March, when the number hit a record 4.9 million at the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave.
Steve Griffin, a virologist at Leeds University and member of the scientific advisory group Independent Sage, added: “The Jubilee celebrations are certainly a factor here, but they are just part of the large increase in mixing, travelling and interactions between large groups that continue unmitigated in the UK since all protections were dropped earlier this year.
“We saw a similar plateau and subsequent rises in the pre-Omicron era with the delta variant, which was nowhere near as transmissible.
“However, whilst lower than the sky-high peaks seen in January and March to April, prevalence remains at between 1-2 per cent of the population, which is very high still, and far higher than the summer of 2021 or 2020.”
Nguồn bài viết Du học Đồng Thịnh | (+84) 96 993.7773 | (+84) 96 1660.266 | (+44) 020 753 800 87 | info@dongthinh.co.uk
Nguồn bài viết Du học Đồng Thịnh | (+84) 96 993.7773 | (+84) 96 1660.266 | (+44) 020 753 800 87 | info@dongthinh.co.uk
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